Mid-Year Charlottesville Market, Aging, Sub Agency, & a Bit of Travel Insight
Note from Jim | July 2024
It’s hot, and likely the coolest year for the rest of our lives.
Like this note? Please share with a friend, and thank you.
The Market — there’s always more to write
You know how I’ve been writing that the Charlottesville market is slowing? It has slowed. This is what I’m telling my clients:
It feels like the market has slowed, and I think that —
It’s either seasonal — it seems like everyone is vacationing more than ever — or systemic or
There are only so many people who can afford historically high prices at generationally high interest rates or
It’s a combination of the two, or something else. Either way, I’ll tell you in May of next year what happens next week. Concluding what’s happening while in the eye of the proverbial storm is a bit foolish. Making intelligent, informed analysis for you and my clients is just that — the best that I can possibly do with the best information I can find.
A friend wrote this, and it’s almost exactly what I had started to write, so I’m borrowing it: “While resale listing activity was flat year over year, it was 30% less than the levels we were experiencing in the years leading up to the shutdown. Contractual activity was down 20% year over year for June. The worst decline we have seen since August of 2023.”
Sold data is useful to study to get a sense of what happened in the last 6 months. I pulled more data than I’m showing below as these types of overviews are intended to provide you a sense and feel of the market. For accurate andspecific insight, you need to look at your very specific micro-market (note: ask me by replying to this email)
First half in Albemarle County
In Albemarle, 914 homes sold in 2023, median price of $490K, and new construction comprised 28% of the solds. In 2024, 13% fewer (798) homes sold, median price is $530K, and new homes are 25% of the solds.
Contracts provide more of a real-time look at what is happening — this is for April, May, June in Albemarle:
In April, May, June 2023, 739 contracts were written and 724 in this timeframe 2024. Median price of the contracts: $513K in 2023 vs $518K in 2024. New construction is ~23% for both timeframes.
And note the bit at the start about June being off 20%; things are shifting.
What about the above makes you curious? What questions do you have?
Sub Agency, Commissions, and Moving Forward
I wrote recently trying to make sense of things. The fun part is that the implementation timeline keeps shifting (now the “commissions gone from MLS, etc” is now 5 August 2024, or 17 August) the mechanics of paying buyers agents hasn't been sorted, there will no longer be any insight or visibility into what is being offered or paid, we need to be strict about not showing houses without signed buyer broker agreements, and sellers need to understand that offering something is better than offering nothing — we think, and haven't yet experienced the new market yet.
All that being said, I figure in 18 months things will be sorted out.
Did you know that until the mid-1990s Buyer Agency did not exist? All real estate agents represented the sellers. Every single agent was a sub-agent of the listing brokerage, and no buyer agency existed.
Mid-1990s in Virginia, Buyer Agency came into creation, and consumers and agents recognized the value of having one person represent buyers who wanted guidance and representation.
Now, with the decoupling/divorcing of commissions, I suspect we are going to see more single-agent dual agency as buyers are unable to afford exclusive representation. (For now; see above expectation that we’ll sort this out in 18 months.)
If you’re curious about some of what an agent does when representing buyers, look at the disclosures parties must sign if they sign away their rights to representation.
Moving Stuff
We have too much stuff. A client recently said,
“Tell your clients that they should ask themselves when buying things, ‘Will I want to pick this up and move it in 10 years?””
I’d argue that about 70% of the stuff in my and many (most of) my clients’ houses, the answer is no.
That’s it. That is the lesson from one of my clients as they moved stuff from one house to the next, in the arduous and tedious process of either redistributing, recycling, or disposing of, stuff.
Think. Buy less. Do more. I’m sure that’s the slogan of some life coach or outdoor story, and it’s still true.
Check on the Old People
Age happens.
If you’re able, check on the old people. A few times recently I’ve seen houses owned by and lived in by older people, and their houses have been in states of disrepair — disrepair that was unfortunately surprising to them.
If you have old relatives, walk around their houses a few times a year. Go into the crawlspaces and attics, and the other less-visited parts of their homes.
The Value of Shutting Up
I was younger and thought I knew more than I did. I certainly didn’t know when to shut up.
There we were in a beautiful country property in the middle of nowhere. House was perfect, setting was perfect, and so was the silence — the silence that my client wanted so desperately as he lived in DC and needed an escape to solitude. He wanted the property.
I’m making up numbers as this was about 20 years ago. Asking price was $500,000. He wanted to pay full price. In my effort to demonstrate my value and expertise, I told him I thought we should negotiate; the house had been on the market for a bit, and why not? I’m the pro. He pushed back a bit, and trusted me because I was the “professional.”
He lost the house. Another offer came in at full price.
And I never heard from him again. Sometimes, shutting up is the right thing to do, and, just because someone pays their dues to be a Realtor doesn’t mean they know what they are doing.
Traveling Light
My wife and I, now that we are empty-nesters, have traveled a bit more of late. It’s fun. Recently on Threads, someone wrote, “Traveling is just conspicuous consumption, it ain’t making you a better person.”
My reply: “Disagree. Travel opens my eyes and mind to different and often better ways to live. Plus I like looking at other real estate brokers’ displays.”
I find that travel exposes us to things we don’t see in the States. I look at how infrastructure is done well and better than in the US. I look at real estate listings. , I read different newspapers in other countries. I eat different foods.
And we don’t check bags, or post real-time about our travels.
What I’m Reading
Sea levels in Florida are rising fast. Tough decisions ahead
Banks Are Finally Realizing What Climate Change Will Do to Housing. This, too. And this.
My Month Without a Smartphone - A friend sent this to me; fascinating.
Why do Copa América games have empty seats? It’s about more than ticket prices. The answer “… touches on ticket prices and marketing, but also on broader macroeconomics, on geography, on urban planning and public transportation and, arguably most of all, the sheer size of stadiums.”
What I’m Listening To
Decoding Gen-Z slang and grammar pet peeves with linguist Anne Curzan
How bad is alcohol for you, really? I took many months off from drinking, and barely imbibe now. I’m wondering what will happen to the brewery/vineyard economy as this shift continues?
What I’m Buying
I bought a new backpack. Tom Bihn’s Synik 22, or my everyday carry bag, and daypack when traveling. There’s a story here about building and buying/selling products designed for long, long-term use rather than transitory, poorly constructed things designed for obsolescence. That, and the exceptional storytelling and detail on the Tom Bihn site. I had and used one of their messenger bags for years, until life outgrew it. This new one will be used for decades unless the Synik 26 comes out and then I’ll sell this one.
What I’m Asking You
After reading the market information above, what questions do you have? When you’re looking at the market, what data points do you focus on?
Have you tried searching for homes in the new Nest app?
Preview of next month —
Charlottesville zoning
MLS photos, AI, and ethics
Leadership
A lesson learned
Real estate listings and infrastructure in Paris and Copenhagen
