Shifting Market Data, Anecdata in Charlottesville, and Qualifications
July 2025 | Note from Jim
I didn’t intend July’s note to be this market-heavy, as I had a few other topics, but the market shift warrants a shift in writing. This month: a deepish dive into the market shift, psychology and qualifications, just in time frustrations, and what I’m reading.
I’m doing a Charlottesville Real Estate Reddit AMA this Friday, 11 July, if you’re interested.
I’ll get to the market in a minute. Look at my new e-bike! I’ve had it for a few weeks now, and I’ve already put about 40 miles on it going to meetings, showings, coffee, and around Charlottesville. My rides have all been for under 4 or 5 miles, with one for 7 because I was having fun exploring.
We have hills, and while I can do the hills, on days when it’s 95 ºF having a bit of help isn’t a bad thing.
Also: More people on e-bikes and more protected bike lanes, please. Related: Charlottesville’s e-bike Lending Library, and the City’s e-bike lottery is open now.
Charlottesville/Albemarle Market Look
There are a few things I track to best feel and know the market, and localize some of those thoughts and data to ours.
I wrote a bit about DOM (days on the market) last month.
July brings a couple anecdotes and more data.
“Now that there’s a little bit of inventory, the only remaining buyers are really picky all of a sudden”
“I showed seven houses to a buyer yesterday and eight to a different buyer today. Haven’t done that in years.”
“We're thinking about next steps, and would like to start receiving listing emails so we can get a feel for sale and price drop timelines.”
We have more active inventory on the market right now than we have seen in years.
“I’m glad I didn’t wait for rates or prices to drop to buy; we’ve been in our home for two years and we’re happy.”
Days on Market
Right now, active resale median DOM for single family + attached homes (63) in the City is 57. Pending (44) is 17. Price matters.
Right now, active resale median DOM for single family + attached homes (207) in Albemarle County is 44. Pending (137) is 19. Price matters.
What are we looking at here?
Looking at resale single family + attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle.
Contracts are up a bit.
Nearly half of homes listed went under contract between 1 April and 30 June.
If you’re a seller on the market for 30 days, I’d say that that’s not the end of the world; we’re in a different market.
Price is paramount. Price right, and you have a much better chance of going under contract efficiently.
Want ≠ market value
Broadly, median days on the market are rising. That’s okay.
When I do market analyses for clients, I often use list-to-sale ratio to help guide decisions and thinking.
Why I don’t use list-to-sale ratio for broad stories like I’ve written this month:
It’s too broad of a statistic to reliably gauge the market because to make it a truly relevant number, I would have to refine it so much as to be not broad anymore.
Without digging into the data to see the true days on market, I might be including properties that have been listed three times over the past nine months or a few houses that have been sitting for so long that they skew the data.
I am looking for useful insight.
For example, if I’m looking for list-to-sale ratios for a two-story single-family property in the City of Charlottesville between $850K and $950K, with at least 4BR, and built between 1940 and 1979, the ranches in Greenbrier and the bungalows in Fry’s Spring will clutter the data and insights. And if it clutters my data there, why would I clutter the data here?
Helping sellers drop anchors: a refreshed skill.
For realtors, we are rediscovering skills that we might have let atrophy for a few years. Helping buyers and sellers cope with and understand the shift, and feel as confident as possible that they are making the right decision, is what good ones do. These are the some of the soft skills that I’ve worked to hone.
Buyers are becoming patient.
Sellers are feeling impatient.
Waiting has costs — which is, as I say, fine — so long as you understand the costs.
—
I have a working theory that makes sense when I say it out loud that 5 days on the market really means 1 or 2, and 9 days vs 5 days on the market is a much bigger difference than it looks.
I’m not qualified.
But.
I was a first time homebuyer. And I am married. And I’ve had kids, who have gone to college. And I’ve got grandkids, and those grandkids live close enough that we see them often.
A lot of what I do is offer life advice.
Am I qualified? Maybe. All I do is tell stories and make the effort to tell those stories at the appropriate time, in the right context, to share experience and knowledge, and also maybe make my clients feel both that they aren’t alone in the process and that I’ve seen similar things before.
Some much of real estate is a balancing act of data + psychology and empathy.
Just in Time.
It’s frustrating for all of us.
You make an offer on 3 September with a closing date of 27 October.
Make loan application within 5 days of contract
Home inspection within 12 days
Loan commitment and appraisal are done within 33 days
You should be in the quiet period, and you sort of are.
But we’re still waiting on the survey and the title work: both of which don’t get done/delivered until a few days prior to closing, and if it’s more than 5 days, we’re lucky. (related: Should I Get a Survey?)
Title and survey issues can create headaches, angst, and last minute negotiations — in a word, problems.
And that’s the way it is. We (attorney/title) could order title work upon ratification, and we could order the survey at the same time. We don’t. Surveyors and attorneys (in this case) don’t work on contingencies as do realtors; they do the work and need to get paid, so we (the system) wait until we are through at least the inspection, if not appraisal.
Because that is the (frustrating) way that it is, and part of my role is to set clients’ expectations for these inevitable frustrations.
Maybe soon I’ll tell the story about how after we did the survey and title search on an inherited property my buyers contracted on, we discovered that the deceased sellers were caught up in lawsuits tying up the property for nearly a decade already.
Return to Seasonal Market?
With the flattening market, and home sales dropping, and home sale contingencies becoming un-impossible, the market maybe returning to a seasonal market with the bulk of transactions in the March-June timeframe.
No answers yet; this is something I’m watching.
What I’m Reading
Local
Charlottesville Community Engagement. The single most informative thing I read every day and week to know what’s happening that affects real estate and life in Charlottesville and Albemarle.
Climate
Realtor Politics - this is a fight that we solved years ago, and it’s a shame it’s happening again.
Compass asks court to block Zillow from enforcing its listing standards
I asked a month ago on LinkedIn, “Looking for someone to make the argument that private listing networks are good for fair housing.
I'll wait.” I’m still waiting.
Transportation
America
What I’m Listening To
Lastly, a request for a favor from my clients. If you have a few minutes, I would greatly appreciate your taking the time to review our work together on Google or Zillow. Thank you!
And next month - the stuff I didn’t get to this month. There’s always so much to write about. Suggestions always welcomed.
Thank you!
— Jim - 434-242-7140